Current Bitcoin market regime: Bear — updated 4 July 2026. RegimeRisk classifies Bitcoin's market structure daily using derivatives data, on-chain metrics, and ML ensemble models.

How RegimeRisk Detects Market Regimes

From raw market data to actionable regime intelligence in three steps.

Step 1: Ingest derivatives and market data

RegimeRisk pulls real-time data from Binance USDT-M futures including open interest, funding rates, liquidation flows, and volatility metrics — the same signals institutional desks monitor.

Step 2: Classify the current regime

An ML ensemble of XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost processes 200+ engineered features to classify Bitcoin's current market state as Bull, Bear, Range, Volatility, or Transition.

Step 3: Adapt your strategy

Daily regime classifications and forward-looking regime bias with 1-day, 3-day, and 7-day confidence scores help traders stop using the wrong strategy for the current market structure.

Real-Time Regime Classification and Forecasting

RegimeRisk Plans

Free — $0 forever

Pro — $49 per month

7-day free trial, no card required. Reverts to free after 7 days.

Built on perpetual futures data, on-chain HODL waves, and cross-asset macro signals. See the full methodology.

Also available as a free indicator on TradingView.

Bitcoin Market Regime Intelligence — Know WHEN to Trade

RegimeRisk is an AI-powered platform that classifies Bitcoin market conditions in real time. Using derivatives data, funding rates, on-chain metrics, and machine learning, it detects five structural market states: Bull, Bear, Range, Volatility, and Transition.

Most crypto traders focus on price direction alone. RegimeRisk gives you the regime context — the structural environment your strategy is operating in — so you can size correctly, avoid false breakouts, and know when to stay out of the market entirely.

Daily regime classifications are updated every 24 hours. Multi-horizon forecasts give 1-day, 3-day, and 7-day forward regime probabilities with confidence scores. Sign up free to access real-time regime data.

Sign up free — access regime data

Bitcoin Market Regime States

  • Bull Regime

    Trend continuation phase. Breakouts are more reliable. Higher conviction entries.

  • Bear Regime

    Defensive posture required. Rallies are typically sell opportunities. Reduce exposure.

  • Range Regime

    Compression active. Breakouts are statistically unreliable. Mean reversion favoured.

  • Transition Regime

    Market structure is shifting. Lower conviction. Wait for regime confirmation.

What RegimeRisk Analyses

  • Derivatives positioning and funding rates
  • Volatility compression and expansion cycles
  • On-chain Bitcoin metrics and liquidity conditions
  • Multi-timeframe market structure analysis
  • Historical regime transition patterns
  • Cross-asset macro regime context