Market Regime Insights

Analysis, research, and regime intelligence for Bitcoin and crypto traders.

Bitcoin Drawdown Risk Across Market Regimes
Risk

Bitcoin Drawdown Risk Across Market Regimes

Bitcoin drawdown risk is peak-to-trough loss plus duration, recovery, and regime context—not a single ATH percentage or a crash forecast.

Kai Lawson · 5 Sept 2026 · 10 min read
Bitcoin Trend Indicators: Direction, Strength, and Momentum
Education

Bitcoin Trend Indicators: Direction, Strength, and Momentum

A regime-aware guide to bitcoin trend indicators: map moving averages to direction, ADX to strength, and RSI to momentum—without treating any overlay as a forecast.

Kai Lawson · 5 Sept 2026 · 10 min read
How to Use the Free TradingView Regime Indicator
Education

How to Use the Free TradingView Regime Indicator

Install and use RegimeRisk's free TradingView indicator to identify Bull, Bear, Range, Volatility, and Transition conditions directly on a Bitcoin chart.

Kai Lawson · 5 Aug 2026 · 10 min read
Bitcoin Wyckoff Phase Current 2026: Accumulation, Distribution or Markup?
Market Analysis

Bitcoin Wyckoff Phase Current 2026: Accumulation, Distribution or Markup?

As of 7 Sep 2026, Bitcoin’s Wyckoff phase is unconfirmed. No sourced range exists; snapshot prints are observations, not accumulation or markup.

Kai Lawson · 31 Jul 2026 · 8 min read
The Best Bitcoin Regime Indicator: Dashboard vs API Tools Compared
Strategy

The Best Bitcoin Regime Indicator: Dashboard vs API Tools Compared

TradingView scripts, API tools, or dashboards — which gives you the best bitcoin regime indicator? An honest comparison of depth, accessibility, and what each approach misses.

Kai Lawson · 27 Jul 2026 · 9 min read
When to Stop Trading Crypto: Using Market Regime as a Strategy Gate
Strategy

When to Stop Trading Crypto: Using Market Regime as a Strategy Gate

Most strategies focus on what to trade. The harder question is when to stop. Learn how using market regime as a strategy gate improves risk-adjusted returns.

Kai Lawson · 24 Jul 2026 · 9 min read
Altcoin Regimes Explained: Why Alts Confirm or Diverge from Bitcoin
Market Analysis

Altcoin Regimes Explained: Why Alts Confirm or Diverge from Bitcoin

BTC sits below $67K while alts fall harder. Learn why altcoin regime detection goes beyond beta — and what divergence from Bitcoin actually signals.

Kai Lawson · 22 Jul 2026 · 9 min read
BTC Cycle Indicators Compared: Which Actually Hold Up?
Market Analysis

BTC Cycle Indicators Compared: Which Actually Hold Up?

Pi Cycle, MVRV, Rainbow Chart, Puell Multiple — compared on track record and lag. Which BTC cycle indicators hold up, and when does regime detection work better?

Kai Lawson · 20 Jul 2026 · 9 min read
The Best Bitcoin Indicators — And Why No Single One Wins
Education

The Best Bitcoin Indicators — And Why No Single One Wins

No single Bitcoin indicator wins across all market conditions. Here's why the best approach combines moving averages, RSI, MACD, and on-chain data by regime.

Kai Lawson · 15 Jul 2026 · 9 min read
The Altcoin Season Index: How It Works and When It Fails
Market Analysis

The Altcoin Season Index: How It Works and When It Fails

The altcoin season index is widely used but structurally flawed. Here's how it's built, where it lags, and why regime context matters more than any single reading.

Kai Lawson · 13 Jul 2026 · 8 min read
Bitcoin's Five Market Regimes vs the Bull/Bear/Chop Model
Education

Bitcoin's Five Market Regimes vs the Bull/Bear/Chop Model

The bull/bear/chop model collapses Range and Volatility into one bucket — and that costs traders. Here's why five regime states give you meaningfully better decisions.

Kai Lawson · 10 Jul 2026 · 8 min read
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Tracker: Why Flows Drive Regime Shifts
Strategy

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Tracker: Why Flows Drive Regime Shifts

A bitcoin etf inflows tracker is a primary-market construction from shares outstanding and NAV, not a sentiment gauge. Here is how to define, date and interpret it.

Kai Lawson · 8 Jul 2026 · 10 min read
Fundamental Analysis for Bitcoin: A Practical Framework
Education

Fundamental Analysis for Bitcoin: A Practical Framework

Bitcoin doesn't have earnings or a balance sheet. Here's what BTC fundamental analysis actually means — four layers that set the backdrop for every regime call.

Kai Lawson · 6 Jul 2026 · 9 min read
Building a BTC Risk Index: What Goes Into It
Risk

Building a BTC Risk Index: What Goes Into It

A single indicator always fails. A composite BTC risk index — combining valuation, volatility, leverage, sentiment, and macro — gives traders a calibrated read on current market risk.

Kai Lawson · 3 Jul 2026 · 9 min read
The BTC Rainbow Graph vs Data-Driven Regime Detection
Market Analysis

The BTC Rainbow Graph vs Data-Driven Regime Detection

BTC hit $58,916 — a yearly low. The rainbow chart says \

Kai Lawson · 1 Jul 2026 · 8 min read
The BTC 200 Week Moving Average as a Cycle Floor
Education

The BTC 200 Week Moving Average as a Cycle Floor

The BTC 200 week moving average has marked every major Bitcoin cycle floor. Here's what it actually tells you — and where it falls short as a standalone signal.

Kai Lawson · 29 Jun 2026 · 9 min read
Bitcoin Liquidity Maps: How to Read Liquidation Clusters
Market Analysis

Bitcoin Liquidity Maps: How to Read Liquidation Clusters

A $1B liquidation event just swept BTC to $58K. Here's how to read a liquidity map btc traders use to anticipate these cluster-driven moves before they happen.

Kai Lawson · 27 Jun 2026 · 9 min read
The MVRV Z-Score Explained: Reading Bitcoin Market Regimes from On-Chain Valuation
Education

The MVRV Z-Score Explained: Reading Bitcoin Market Regimes from On-Chain Valuation

The MVRV Z-Score measures Bitcoin's market value against aggregate holder cost basis. Here's what extreme readings signal — and why it's a regime input, not a top/bottom oracle.

Kai Lawson · 27 Jun 2026 · 9 min read
Where Are We in the Crypto Cycle in 2026? A Data-Driven Answer
Market Analysis

Where Are We in the Crypto Cycle in 2026? A Data-Driven Answer

BTC at $60,212, Fear & Greed at 13, ETH down 5.4%. Where are we in the crypto cycle right now? A data-driven read on regime state, macro risk, and what the structure actually signals.

Kai Lawson · 26 Jun 2026 · 8 min read
Alternative.me Crypto Fear and Greed Index: How It Works and Where It Fails
Strategy

Alternative.me Crypto Fear and Greed Index: How It Works and Where It Fails

The Alternative.me Fear & Greed Index is everywhere — but few traders understand its five components or where each one systematically fails during regime transitions.

Kai Lawson · 24 Jun 2026 · 8 min read
DVOL Explained: What the Deribit Volatility Index Says About Bitcoin Risk
Education

DVOL Explained: What the Deribit Volatility Index Says About Bitcoin Risk

DVOL is Bitcoin's volatility index — and it often warns before spot prices move. Here's how to read it and why regime-aware traders track it closely.

Kai Lawson · 22 Jun 2026 · 9 min read
BTC Long vs Short Ratio Current: How to Read Today's Positioning Without Getting Trapped
Education

BTC Long vs Short Ratio Current: How to Read Today's Positioning Without Getting Trapped

Four distinct datasets sit behind the 'BTC long vs short ratio current' label. This guide explains each one, shows today's Binance snapshot values, and explains how to read them without getting…

Kai Lawson · 21 Jun 2026 · 9 min read
Is Bitcoin in an Accumulation Phase Right Now? The 2026 Evidence
Market Analysis

Is Bitcoin in an Accumulation Phase Right Now? The 2026 Evidence

Bitcoin is 49% below its October 2025 peak. Is this accumulation or a falling knife? We assess the evidence across price structure, ETF flows, and derivatives.

Kai Lawson · 21 Jun 2026 · 9 min read
Bitcoin Futures Basis Explained: Contango, Backwardation and What They Signal Now
Education

Bitcoin Futures Basis Explained: Contango, Backwardation and What They Signal Now

The bitcoin futures basis encodes regime information most traders miss. Here's what contango, backwardation, and basis compression signal in the current macro environment.

Kai Lawson · 19 Jun 2026 · 9 min read